Betting on Holiday Travel: Christmas Week TSA Travel Analysis (Dec. 23-29)

Discover the key trends and data shaping the TSA holiday travel prediction markets

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Prediction markets traders are betting on holiday travel this Christmas week, with tens of thousands of dollars in open interest on Kalshi’s  TSA average check-ins from Dec. 23 to 29. This market captures both outbound Christmas travel and return journeys. 

TSA checkpoint data represents total passengers, both domestic and international travelers. This year’s robust early December number suggests strong holiday demand, but traders should watch for shifts in travel patterns due to a midweek Christmas.

Historical Christmas week travel data

Holiday air travel has shown a consistent upward trend since the post-pandemic recovery. The daily breakdown reveals patterns in how Americans time their holiday travel. With Christmas Eve and Christmas Day traditionally showing lower volumes, it is an indication that most travelers prefer to arrive at their destinations before the holiday begins. 

Travelers like to travel during weekends. This year’s Christmas falls on a Wednesday, which could lead to a more distributed travel pattern.

Last week’s data suggests robust travel volumes, averaging 2,560,844 travelers per day, notably higher than the same period in previous years. 

The post-Christmas travel window this year spans several days before New Year’s Eve, potentially affecting how people plan their return journeys. Travelers may take advantage of the period between Christmas and New Year to extend their holidays, leading to an even more distributed travel pattern from Dec 27 to 29. 

Prediction News trading strategy notes:

  • Lowest volumes on Christmas Eve and Day
  • Peak travel 1-2 days before Christmas 
  • Secondary peak during Dec 26-27 return period 

Beyond the numbers

Making accurate predictions in the TSA volume markets requires more than just data analysis. Traders should maintain awareness of other factors that can influence travel patterns, such as: 

  • Weather forecast at major hubs
  • Airline operational updates
  • International travel trends

Useful websites

Consider using these websites for additional data when trading on Kalshi’s travel markets.

  • Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s ASPM database provides details information on flight oeprations, including scheduled departures and scheduled arrivals for all airports in the US. You can customize the search by selecting specific dates and airports. 
  • FlightAware  – FlightAware offers real-time flight tracking data using its artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms. Its live flight tracker provides a map where you can find flight from specific airline. It also provides an overview of the airborne aircrafts in its database. 
  • FlightsFrom.com – FlightsFrom.com provides comprehensive tracking of domestic flights from US airports, showing the number of non-stop routes and daily flight frequencies. It offers insights into airport capacity and route networks that can indicate travel volume.
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