Betting on ‘Flight Risk’: Critics, Controversy, and Rotten Tomatoes Predictions

Traders are betting on the Rotten Tomatoes score of Mel Gibson and Mark Wahlberg's action thriller as early reviews and controversy shape its reception

Flight Risk

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What to know:

  • Users have traded over $450,000 on the Rotten Tomatoes score, with a predicted score ranging from 15.8 to 64.4.

 

  • Critics and audiences may struggle to separate Gibson’s divisive public statements from his work, potentially impacting the film’s critical reception.

 

  • With a review embargo in place until the premiere and social media reactions calling it “outdated” and “devoid of tension,” expectations for Flight Risk remain low.

Every film comes with its own risks, both on and off-screen — and Flight Risk is no exception. This high-stakes action thriller is set to land in U.S. theaters on Jan. 24, 2025.

Users on the top prediction market Kalshi have been taking their own risk on this film – they have been betting on the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score. The market has over $450,000 in trade volume with its lowest predicted score at 15.8 and its highest at 64.4.

This wide range illustrates a certain level of uncertainty when it comes to this film’s forecasted score. Here’s what you need to know before making your own bets.

What is ‘Flight Risk’?

Flight Risk is an action thriller movie directed by Mel Gibson and starring Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Dockery, and Topher Grace. Icon Productions and Davis Entertainment Company co-produced the film.

In this high-stakes suspense thriller, Academy Award®️ nominee Mark Wahlberg (Actor in a Supporting Role, 2006 – The Departed) plays a pilot transporting an Air Marshal (Michelle Dockery) accompanying a fugitive (Topher Grace) to trial. As they cross the Alaskan wilderness, tensions soar and trust is tested, as not everyone on board is who they seem.

In 2020, Jared Rosenberg’s screenplay for this film was featured on The Black List, which is an annual list of the “most-liked” unproduced screenplays. In 2023, it was announced that Gibson boarded the film as director, and Walhberg was slated to star. 

Critical reception of Mel Gibson movies

As many of us know, this is not Gibson’s first time in the director’s seat. In 1995, Gibson directed, produced, and starred in the iconic film Braveheart. He won the Golden Globe and Oscar for Best Director for this film. 

But this wasn’t the only film he’s directed.

Movie Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer Score
Hacksaw Ridge (2016) 84%
Apocalypto (2006) 65%
The Passion of the Christ (2004) 50%
Braveheart (1995) 76%
The Man Without a Face (1993) 68%

Before Flight Risk, Gibson directed five other movies. His track record is fairly strong with four out of five of the films scoring a Fresh Score. The range is fairly wide from 50 to 84 but there are no abysmally low scores.

Despite his mostly positive track record, Flight Risk may not fare as well.

Early reviews of ‘Flight Risk

Early reviews are all pointing to a poor critical score for the film. Gibson hasn’t directed a film in nearly a decade but he has continued to be controversial.

In 2024, he said that former Vice President Kamala Harris has “the I.Q. of a fence post.” And in promoting the movie, Gibson has only appeared on conservative platforms like the Fox News show The Ingraham Angle and the podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience.

The podcast interview was filled with controversial statements like his disbelief in Darwin’s theory of evolution. These polarizing opinions may sway critics who can’t separate the artist from the art. 

Additionally, the studio’s actions suggest they may lack confidence in the film’s quality. A key indicator is the decision to set the review embargo until Thursday at 6 p.m., just as previews begin. This move often signals concerns about negative reviews impacting ticket sales.

And lastly, most of the early reviews on social media mention the film’s poor quality. One reviewer even said the film was “so bad its oddly enjoyable.”

Early reviews and Gibson’s controversial reputation both point to a poor critical reception for Flight Risk. This might just be a risk that didn’t take off. 

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