On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a stopgap measure to fund the government through September. The vote was 217-213, with Thomas Massie (R-KY) the lone Republican to vote against it, and Jared Golden (D-ME) crossing the aisle to support it. If the Senate doesn’t approve the stopgap measure, the government will shut down on Friday, March 14.
CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi saw odds of a shutdown drop in response to the House vote. Kalshi’s odds on whether there would be a government shutdown by March 19, the Wednesday after the funding deadline, fell to 12% from a high of 50% at the beginning of March.
Speaker Mike Johnson, President Trump, and Vice President Vance rallied Republicans who normally don’t support continuing resolutions to fund the government, like Tim Burchett (R-TN), who hasn’t voted in favor of one in six years.
Johnson's speakership remains vulnerable
Even though Johnson got all but one Republican on board with his spending measure, his odds of losing his position in 2025 haven’t fallen. Kalshi traders give him a 26% chance of no longer being speaker of the House by 2026.
Johnson’s odds of a 2025 removal are down from their December 2024 shutdown scare high of 65%. In December, Elon Musk and Trump derailed Johnson’s first two spending deals. Johnson managed to fund the government until March 14 on his third bill with hours to spare before the shutdown deadline.
His March attempt has gone smoother, but he remains vulnerable. According to House rules, any Republican member can bring Johnson’s speakership to a vote. That rule doomed Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, and acts as a trapdoor for any Republican speaker.
Trump’s leadership team in the White House and Congress may have improved their ability to work together. However, some members of that circle are more vulnerable than others, and Johnson faces pressure from his fellow representatives as much as he does from the president and Musk.
