As of March 5, 2025, Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. are in a close contest to become the world’s most valuable company by the end of the year. Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, are actively tracking this rivalry, with traders placing significant bets on the outcome.
Polymarket defines the “Largest Company” as the one with the highest market capitalization at the close of markets on December 31, 2025. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Nvidia holds this position; otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
Apple's $500 billion U.S. investment
Apple has announced a monumental $500 billion investment in the United States over the next four years, aiming to bolster domestic manufacturing, innovation, and job creation. This commitment includes:
- New Manufacturing Facility in Texas: Apple plans to build a 250,000-square-foot facility near Houston to produce servers for its AI initiatives, creating thousands of jobs.
- Expansion of the Advanced Manufacturing Fund: Doubling the fund to $10 billion to support high-skilled manufacturing jobs across America.
- Job Creation: The investment is expected to generate 20,000 new jobs in research and development, silicon engineering, and AI/machine learning sectors.
Prediction markets react
On Polymarket, traders are closely monitoring these developments. The market for “Largest Company end of 2025” shows:
- Apple: 50% (up from 36% before the investment announcement)
- Nvidia: 30%
- Microsoft: 11%
- Alphabet: 5%
Company
Market Capitalization (USD)
Apple
$3.80 trillion
Nvidia
$3.28 trillion
Microsoft
$3.10 trillion
Alphabet
$2.33 trillion
Amazon
$2.31 trillion
Tesla
$1.30 trillion
Saudi Aramco
$2.93 trillion
Note: These figures are approximate and subject to market fluctuations.
Since the February 24 announcement of Apple’s $500 billion investment, the odds of Apple topping the market cap rankings surged from 36% to 50%, reflecting increased trader confidence in Apple’s growth trajectory.
The case for Apple
- Domestic Manufacturing and Tariff Mitigation: By expanding manufacturing within the U.S., Apple aims to reduce reliance on overseas production, potentially avoiding tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
- Advancements in AI: The new Texas facility will enhance Apple’s AI capabilities, aligning with industry trends and consumer demand for AI-driven products.
- Job Creation and Economic Impact: The creation of 20,000 jobs is expected to boost the U.S. economy and solidify Apple’s reputation as a leader in innovation and employment.
The case for Nvidia's
- AI and GPU Dominance: Nvidia continues to lead in the GPU market, essential for AI and machine learning applications, sectors experiencing rapid growth.
- Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with major tech companies enhance Nvidia’s market reach and revenue streams.
- Stock Performance: Nvidia’s stock has shown significant growth, reflecting investor confidence in its future prospects.
Overall, analysts remain optimistic about the sustained strong performance of tech firms in 2025. Daniel Ives of Wedbush spoke to Reuters, predicting a 25% gain in tech stocks in 2025, attributing potential growth to a less regulatory environment under President Trump, forthcoming strong AI initiatives, and a stable foundation for Big Tech and Tesla in 2025 and beyond.
