The Alto Knights brings Robert De Niro onto the screen in a first for the 81-year-old actor – he’s playing the two lead roles. But is De Niro enough of a pull to land a blockbuster success?
The film is going to arrive at U.S. theaters on March 21, 2025. Launched on March 18, 2025, top prediction market platform Polymarket has had users betting on the film’s box office opening weekend performance.
With over $10,000 in trading volume, the bettors believe the most likely choice is less than $3 million at 59%. The second most likely choice is $3-5 million at 36%.
The market will close once the official data is released for the opening weekend’s gross. Before the weekend, here’s what you need to know to bet on the movie’s box office gross.
What is ‘The Alto Knights’?
The Alto Knights is based on a true story. Besides De Niro playing the two main leads, the supporting cast is made up of Debra Messing, Cosmo Jarvis, Kathrine Narducci, and Michael Rispoli.
The film follows two of New York’s most notorious organized crime bosses, Frank Costello (De Niro) and Vito Genovese (De Niro), as they vie for control of the city’s streets. Once the best of friends, petty jealousies and a series of betrayals place them on a deadly collision course that will reshape the Mafia (and America) forever.
The film has an impressive team behind the cameras. The film is directed by Oscar-winning director Barry Levinson (Rain Man), produced by Oscar-winning Irwin Winkler (Rocky and Goodfellas), and written by Oscar-nominee Nicholas Pileggi (Goodfellas).
Critical reception and box office performance of Barry Levinson movies
Levinson has directed 23 feature films in his career since his first in 1982. Let’s take a look at how they performed at the box office.
Movie | Rotten Tomatoes Score | Box Office Performance |
Rock the Kasbah (2015) | 7% | $1,470,592 |
The Humbling (2014) | 53% | N/A Domestic |
The Bay (2012) | 76% | $19,747 |
What Just Happened (2008) | 50% | $192,508 |
Man of the Year (2006) | 22% | $12,299,380 |
Envy (2004) | 8% | $6,160,886 |
Bandits (2001) | 64% | $13,050,700 |
An Everlasting Piece (2000) | 48% | $9,128 |
Liberty Heights (1999) | 86% | $95,247 |
Sphere (1998) | 13% | $14,433,957 |
Wag the Dog (1997) | 86% | $92,079 |
Sleepers (1996) | 73% | $12,305,745 |
Disclosure (1994) | 59% | $10,068,126 |
Jimmy Hollywood (1994) | 28% | $1,451,000 |
Toys (1992) | 26% | $4,810,027 |
Bugsy (1991) | 84% | $140,358 |
Avalon (1990) | 86% | $226,613 |
Rain Man (1988) | 88% | $7,005,719 |
Good Morning, Vietnam (1987) | 90% | $194,308 |
Tin Men (1987) | 82% | $187,381 |
Young Sherlock Holmes (1985) | 71% | $2,538,234 |
The Natural (1984) | 83% | $5,088,381 |
Diner (1982) | 92% | N/A; Total: $14,099,953 |
This isn’t De Niro and Levinson’s first time working together. They worked three times before on feature films – Sleeper (1996), Wag the Dog (1997) and What Just Happened (2008). Sleeper performed well at the box office with over $12 million on its opening weekend. However, the other two performed poorly, both making under $200,000.
The box office performance of these films is across the map but also importantly aren’t on the same playing field given there has been inflation over the decades. Regardless, his films seem to have ranged from flops to box-office successes.
The same can be said about his films’ critical acclaim. While he boasted impressive scores for the first decade of his career, the same can’t be said afterward.
His last feature film received a shockingly low 7% on Rotten Tomatoes. He’s since directed movies for TV and streamers that have performed significantly stronger.
This includes a TV movie for HBO with De Niro, which received a 73% Certified Fresh score. For this film, the strong behind-the-camera team paired with De Niro may garner critical acclaim. A strong critical reception may drive more people to the theaters.
Boss has arrived! Robert De Niro pulls up to the NYC premiere of #TheAltoKnights like a true kingpin. pic.twitter.com/SKA4F51NzM
— Warner Bros. (@warnerbros) March 16, 2025
With the film not receiving too much media coverage, The Alto Knights may struggle to earn more than $3 million on its opening weekend. It all depends if De Niro’s dual role is enough of a pull.
