5 State of the Union Predictions: What Will Trump Say Tonight?

With more the $5 million on than line, the president's address to Congress is high stakes in more ways than one

Trump speaking at a podium
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President Trump’s first State of the Union address is a chance to make some money off the topics he chooses to discuss, thanks to prediction market Kalshi, which offers a mention market where users can trade on Trump’s words.

On Tuesday evening, Trump will give his speech to a joint session of Congress about the problems he sees in the country and how he purports to solve them. According to the market, the most likely words he’ll say are immigration, Mexico, and America (15+ times). His least likely words are Dogecoin, Sam Altman, and McDonald.  

Additionally, there are many mid to low-priced options that Trump may bring up during the State of the Union. Since the draft of his speech is not public, these prediction markets can have remarkably high returns.

Here are five trades with odds below 50% that lend themselves to mention market betting. Check out the full list on Kalshi here

‘Crypto / Bitcoin’ — Yes (48%)

Why the odds are low: Trump proposed a federal crypto reserve during his campaign and a strategic crypto reserve the weekend before his first State of the Union. Trump, however, didn’t mention crypto or Bitcoin in his inaugural address or CPAC speech. 

Why Trump could say ‘crypto / Bitcoin’: Trump mentioned crypto once in his opening remarks at the World Economic Forum. He also committed to a strategic Bitcoin reserve the weekend before the speech.  

Consequences for Trump’s Administration: If Trump mentions crypto during his State of the Union, it will be a strong signal that crypto has taken a priority in his administration. Trump has already commissioned a panel to draft updated crypto policies and has early plans to empower the CFTC to regulate cryptocurrencies.  

What it means for other markets: A crypto mention during the State of the Union could boost the odds in the market on whether Trump will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by 2026. The odds already spiked from about 50% to 70% over the weekend, so traders are paying attention to how aggressively Trump will pursue government investments in crypto. 

‘God’ 4+ Times — No (34%)

Why the odds are low: There are many ways to mention “God” in a speech. “God bless America” and “God bless the troops” are American speech staples. Trump could seamlessly make at least four mentions of God in Tuesday night. So, this market would depend on the phrasing Trump uses to thank various groups. 

Why Trump won’t say ‘God’ four times: He said “God” four times in his inaugural address and three times at CPAC, so it’s possible for Trump to miss the settlement benchmark in the State of the Union. 

Implications: Trump’s mentions of “God” could signal how much he will nod to the range of cultural conservatives and reactionary Christian nationalists this term. Mentions of God appeal to a broad range of voters who place importance on religion, but “God bless America” says next to nothing about which faction Trump will favor at any point in his presidency.  

What it means for other markets: Trump’s mentions of “God” in this speech could influence how often his press secretary brings it up in her press conferences. Her job is to speak for the administration, so she may adopt a heavier religious emphasis if Trump chooses to do so in this speech and others.

‘Mandate’ 3+ Times — Yes (42%)

Why the odds are low: The State of the Union is largely aspirational, so it’s expected to contain fewer of the grievances that Trump has raised in other speeches. He said the word mandate three times in his inaugural address and CPAC but only twice in his World Economic Forum remarks. 

Why Trump won’t say ‘mandate’ three times: Since his “mandate” is less important than his concrete plans in the State of the Union, that word is expected to get a smaller showing. 

Implications: Trump’s margin of victory in the electoral college has led him to call his victory a “mandate,” using it to defend policies like abolishing the Department of Education and cutting government jobs.  

What it means for other markets: If Trump emphasizes his mandate, then it may signal that he’s particularly willing to pursue dramatic changes in government. It’s worth keeping an eye on the odds of abolishing the Department of Education during and after Trump’s State of the Union.

‘Rig / Rigged’ — Yes (25%)

Why the odds are low: This is another mention that depends on how the president chooses to approach the State of the Union. Trump has called many elections “rigged,” often referring to his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. A focus on the present and future would reduce the odds of Trump saying “rig” or “rigged.”

Why Trump will say ‘rig / rigged’: Some of the policies members of his party pursue could be linked to Trump’s denial of his 2020 election loss. A section on election policy could lead Trump to mention the “rigged” elections he still grumbles about.  

Implications: Trump’s obsession with his 2020 election loss culminated in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Using the State of the Union to peddle false claims about a rigged election would send a strong signal about how likely he could be to use the FBI to target political enemies or potentially disrupt the 2028 presidential election.  

What it means for other markets: Trump’s continued focus on the 2020 election while repeating far-fetched claims might make a potential push for a third term more likely, something he has mentioned, albeit half-heartedly, several times since taking office.

‘TikTok’ — Yes (23%)

Why the odds are low: Since extending the deadline for TikTok to be sold to an American company or face a ban in the United States, Trump has made little mention of TikTok. He didn’t mention it in his inaugural address or in his speeches at the World Economic Forum and CPAC. 

Why Trump will mention ‘TikTok’: TikTok’s ban-or-sale deadline is still coming in April, so Trump could mention it as part of his larger plan for countering Chinese influence at home and abroad.  

Implications: A mention of TikTok would clarify his position on the social media platform itself. It would also add context to Trump’s plans to push back on Chinese influence as it asserts itself militarily in the South China Sea and politically through ongoing influence operations

What it means for other markets: What Trump says about TikTok could inform how Trump will approach other issues, like tariffs on China. Great hostility to China could signal new tariffs while a more conciliatory tone could reduce their likelihood in the immediate future. 

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