Last week, President Trump made controversial decisions regarding free speech and the economy, then tried to make new ones about the war in Ukraine. That was all amid ongoing recession fears and revelations about the harsher treatment of immigrants–legal and illegal alike.
Meanwhile, prediction market platforms like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket have odds on Trump’s latest actions and their possible consequences.
Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet first?
Price Highlights: The top three Cabinet members most likely to leave first are Marco Rubio (18%), Pete Hegseth (12%), and Howard Lutnick (10%).
Settlement Terms: PredictIt’s market on the first member of Trump’s Cabinet to leave ends on the last day of 2025, so the odds reflect the chance of a first-year exit.
Analysis: Fears of a recession, tensions with Ukraine, and ongoing concerns about competence have made three Cabinet members among the most likely to leave first.
Rubio’s odds of an early exit come from tensions with Ukraine. A supporter of Ukraine initially, Rubio has had to manage Trump’s hostility to the small democracy defending itself against its larger autocratic neighbor. Having to publicly declare beliefs he doesn’t hold could lead to his exit before other Cabinet members.
Lutnick is also in the hot seat. Trump’s tariffs have raised recession fears, and as commerce secretary, Lutnick is positioned to take the fall for Trump’s economic policy choices should they turn out to be unpopular.
Finally, Hegseth was among the most controversial Cabinet choices. The vice president had to cast the tie-breaking vote to confirm Hegseth for secretary of defense. Ongoing concerns about his background’s mismatch with his new responsibilities–and among some traders, worries about his alleged drinking problem–make him a possible early exit as well.
Will there be a recession in 2025?
Price Highlights: On Sunday, Kalshi traders gave the United States a 40% chance of a recession in 2025, up from an 18% at Trump’s inauguration.
Settlement Terms: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis will settle the market to Yes.
Analysis: Trump has pitched tariffs as a way to get “fairer” trade deals for the United States. In reality, tariffs increase the prices that Americans pay for imported goods, reducing consumer spending power and increasing the odds of a recession. Kalshi’s recession odds are over twice as high as they were on Trump’s inauguration day, reflecting increasing unease about Trump’s economic policies.
Will Trump eliminate the Department of Education in 2025?
Price Highlights: Heading into the week, Kalshi traders give Trump a 17% chance of eliminating the Department of Education.
Settlement Terms: If the Department of Education is sunsetted or eliminated by 2026, then the market will resolve to Yes.
Analysis: On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order instructing the education secretary to begin dismantling the Department of Education. His executive order didn’t close the agency, though. Eliminating it requires an act of Congress. While Trump and his education secretary are willing to dismantle the agency, traders have little confidence that Congress will eliminate the agency in 2025.
The odds are down from their high of 51%, when he first said he would seek an executive order and “cooperation with Congress” to eliminate the Department of Education.
Will there be an energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?
Price Highlights: On Monday, Polymarket traders gave Russia and Ukraine a 45% chance of reaching a ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Settlement Terms: The market will settle to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire deal by the end of March.
Analysis: Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a ceasefire on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a call with President Trump. It was the first step toward a ceasefire Putin offered since beginning the war in February 2022. The United States reportedly believes that a full ceasefire could be a reality by Easter, April 20.
However, Russia also broke the partial ceasefire with Ukraine that it had previously agreed to. Russia has also cited “difficult negotiations” as obstacles to the war’s end. Polymarket traders seem skeptical that a breakthrough will happen by the end of March. In a different market, Polymarket gives Ukraine and Russia a 51% chance of reaching a ceasefire before July, suggesting traders believe the two countries need longer than a week to implement even a partial ceasefire.
How many deportations will occur in Trump’s first year?
Price Highlights: Kalshi traders are forecasting about 418,000 deportations in Trump’s first year over the weekend.
Settlement Terms: The number of deportations reported by ICE will settle the market.
Analysis: Over the past few weeks, stories about detentions of legal immigrants and denials of entry to certain immigrants have highlighted the Trump administration’s increasingly hostile borders.
A story from March 12 reported a Canadian entrepreneur who was jailed while trying to obtain a visa. On Friday, NPR reported the German consulate’s awareness of citizens arrested and detained for trying to legally enter the United States. The French government also claimed that one of its citizens had been detained and had his phone confiscated for negative opinions he had about Donald Trump. The United States claimed it was because of private data he possessed from a lab in violation of a nondisclosure agreement.
Despite increasingly harsh treatment of legal immigrants, Kalshi’s deportations forecast has been revised down since the beginning of Trump’s second term. The forecast fell from about 700,000 on Inauguration Day to about 418,000 on Sunday.
