We clicked our red heels three times and found ourselves Somewhere Over the Rainbow. The 97th Academy Awards began on March 2, 2025, with a medley of Wizard of Oz/Wicked songs performed by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
After their gravity-defying performance (pun intended), host Conan O’Brien launched into his opening monologue before getting to the awards we’ve all been waiting for. The highly anticipated night arrived, interestingly, without too many surprises.
For the most part, many of the award winners were expected, but there were a few that came by surprise. For Oscar bettors on top prediction markets, it’s important to see where markets were correct and mistaken for future Oscar betting.
Kalshi finished with $15.4 million in Oscar trades, outpacing Polymarket which generated a healthy $14.1 million.
Let’s take a look at where Kalshi, Polymarket, and the critics were right and wrong in their Oscar predictions.
2025 Oscar prediction market performance on Kalshi
There were 23 categories, which gave Kalshi bettors plenty of opportunities to forecast which nominees would win. How many did they get right?
Category Name | Winner | Kalshi Winner Chances 3 Days Before 2/27/24 @7am | Kalshi Winner Chances 12 Hours Before 3/2/24 @7am | Kalshi Favorite 12 Hours Before 3/2/24 @7am | Kalshi Trading Volume |
Best Picture | Anora | 63% | 66% | Anora (66%) | $6,575,568 |
Best Actress | Mikey Madison | 29% | 28% | Demi Moore (63%) | $1,915,869 |
Best Actor | Adrien Brody | 67% | 70% | Adrien Broody (70%) | $1,545,794 |
Best Supporting Actress | Zoe Saldaña | 90% | 88% | Zoe Saldaña (88%) | $757,125 |
Best Supporting Actor | Kieran Culkin | 94% | 92% | Kieran Culkin (92%) | $881,609 |
Best Director | Sean Baker – Anora | 70% | 71% | Sean Baker – Anora (71%) | $613,175 |
Best International Feature | I’m Still Here – Brazil | 61% | 66% | I’m Still Here – Brazil (66%) | $221,583 |
Best Animated Feature | Flow | 29% | 33% | The Wild Robot (65%) | $411,709 |
Best Original Screenplay | Anora – Sean Baker | 70% | 63% | Anora – Sean Baker (63%) | $418,716 |
Best Adapted Screenplay | Conclave – Peter Straughan | 92% | 90% | Conclave – Peter Straughan (90%) | $373,777 |
Best Original Song | El Mal – Emilia Pérez | 73% | 77% | El Mal – Emilia Pérez (77%) | $133,601 |
Best Original Score | The Brutalist | 81% | 83% | The Brutalist (83%) | $47,975 |
Best Documentary Feature | No Other Land | 57% | 57% | No Other Land (57%) | $163,542 |
Best Costume Design | Wicked | 95% | 93% | Wicked (93%) | $120,820 |
Best Make-up and Hairstyling | The Substance | 91% | 87% | The Substance (87%) | $44,102 |
Best Production Design | Wicked | 82% | 82% | Wicked (82%) | $245,928 |
Best Sound | Dune: Part Two | 63% | 68% | Dune: Part Two (68%) | $214,685 |
Best Film Editing | Anora | 31% | 26% | Conclave (63%) | $127,845 |
Best Cinematography | The Brutalist | 75% | 73% | The Brutalist (73%) | $155,845 |
Best Visual Effects | Dune: Part Two | 91% | 92% | Dune: Part Two (92%) | $125,146 |
Best Live Action Short | I’m Not a Robot | 11% | 8% | A Lien (42%) | $102,710 |
Best Animated Short | In the Shadow of the Cypress | 2% | 5% | Yuck! (38%) | $133,235 |
Best Documentary Short | The Only Girl in the Orchestra | 20% | 30% | I Am Ready, Warden (47%) | $44,102 |
Oscar bettors on Kalshi were able to correctly guess 17 of the 23 Oscar categories. The markets they incorrectly guessed were Best Actress, Best Animated Feature, Best Film Editing, Best Live Action Short, Best Animated Short, and Best Documentary Short.
For the first three categories, the winners were the second-most-likely winners. They weren’t complete surprises, but the differences were still rather large – Mikey Madison (28%) vs. Demi Moore (63%), Flow (33%) vs. The Wild Robot (65%), and Anora (26%) vs. Conclave (63%). They all had at least a 30 percent difference.
While the differences for the latter three are similar or smaller than these categories, there was more uncertainty overall and a lower confidence level for the frontrunners. Regardless, a 73% success rate is impressive. Impressively, the Kalshi users bet a cumulative $15,374,461 across the 23 Oscar markets.
2025 Oscar prediction market performance on Polymarket
While Kalshi is only for United States users, Polymarkets users are from outside the U.S.. Both are top prediction markets but did the international audience perform better than the U.S. users?
|
Category Name |
Winner |
Polymarket Winner Chances 3 Days Before 2/27/24 @7am |
Polymarket Winner Chances 12 Hours Before 3/2/24 @7am |
Polymarket Favorite 12 Hours Before 3/2/24 @7am |
Polymarket Trading Volume |
|
Best Picture |
Anora |
66% |
67% |
Anora (67%) |
$5,352,449 |
|
Best Actress |
Mikey Madison |
28% |
26% |
Demi Moore (64%) |
$1,545,979 |
|
Best Actor |
Adrien Brody |
66% |
71% |
Adrien Broody (71%) |
$732,924 |
|
Best Supporting Actress |
Zoe Saldaña |
89% |
93% |
Zoe Saldaña (93%) |
$838,312 |
|
Best Supporting Actor |
Kieran Culkin |
96% |
94% |
Kieran Culkin (94%) |
$377,635 |
|
Best Director |
Sean Baker – Anora |
68% |
67% |
Sean Baker – Anora (67%) |
$478,937 |
|
Best International Feature |
I’m Still Here – Brazil |
60% |
64% |
I’m Still Here – Brazil (64%) |
$188,356 |
|
Best Animated Feature |
Flow |
29% |
32% |
The Wild Robot (66%) |
$654,440 |
|
Best Original Screenplay |
Anora – Sean Baker |
67% |
66% |
Anora – Sean Baker (66%) |
$669,351 |
|
Best Adapted Screenplay |
Conclave – Peter Straughan |
93% |
94% |
Conclave – Peter Straughan (94%) |
$525,020 |
|
Best Original Song |
El Mal – Emilia Pérez |
71% |
74% |
El Mal – Emilia Pérez (74%) |
$22,178 |
|
Best Original Score |
The Brutalist |
79% |
84% |
The Brutalist (84%) |
$31,527 |
|
Best Documentary Feature |
No Other Land |
58% |
55% |
No Other Land (55%) |
$250,134 |
|
Best Costume Design |
Wicked |
95% |
89% |
Wicked (89%) |
$35,352 |
|
Best Make-up and Hairstyling |
The Substance |
89% |
90% |
The Substance (90%) |
$43,862 |
|
Best Production Design |
Wicked |
82% |
83% |
Wicked (83%) |
$37,431 |
|
Best Sound |
Dune: Part Two |
66% |
71% |
Dune: Part Two (71%) |
$648,997 |
|
Best Film Editing |
Anora |
29% |
22% |
Conclave (66%) |
$507,027 |
|
Best Cinematography |
The Brutalist |
77% |
79% |
The Brutalist (79%) |
$73,371 |
|
Best Visual Effects |
Dune: Part Two |
93% |
93% |
Dune: Part Two (93%) |
$180,881 |
|
Best Live Action Short |
I’m Not a Robot |
9% |
5% |
A Lien (40%) |
$258,739 |
|
Best Animated Short |
In the Shadow of the Cypress |
6% |
12% |
Yuck! (42%) |
$161,532 |
|
Best Documentary Short |
The Only Girl in the Orchestra |
24% |
28% |
I Am Ready, Warden (46%) |
$526,772 |
In reality, the Polymarket users predicted in a very similar manner to Kalshi users. Most percentages were only a few points off from the Kalshi forecasts.
Similar to Kalshi, the Polymarket bettors also made mistakes for the same six categories and were correct 73% overall. The Polymarket cumulative volume was at a slightly lower $14,141,206.
2025 Oscar prediction performance by critics
When reviewing the predictions for the 2025 Oscar odds, we compiled a list of 10 critics and examined their predictions for the 23 categories. Did they perform better than Kalshi and Polymarket?
Category Name | Winner | Odds | Predicted Winner by Majority |
Best Picture | Anora | Anora (9) vs. Conclave (1) | Anora |
Best Actress | Mikey Madison | Demi Moore (6) vs. Mikey Maidson (4) | Demi Moore |
Best Actor | Adrien Brody | Adrien Brody (7) vs. Timothée Chalamet (4) | Adrien Brody |
Best Supporting Actress | Zoe Saldaña | Zoe Saldaña (10) | Zoe Saldaña |
Best Supporting Actor | Kieran Culkin | Kieran Culkin (10) | Kieran Culkin |
Best Director | Sean Baker – Anora | Sean Baker – Anora (7) vs. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (3) | Sean Baker – Anora |
Best International Feature | I’m Still Here – Brazil | Emilia Pérez (3) vs. I’m Still Here (4) | I’m Still Here |
Best Animated Feature | Flow | The Wild Robot (5) vs. Flow (2) | The Wild Robot |
Best Original Screenplay | Anora – Sean Baker | Anora – Sean Baker (7) | Anora – Sean Baker |
Best Adapted Screenplay | Conclave – Peter Straughan | Conclave – Peter Straughan (7) | Conclave – Peter Straughan |
Best Original Song | El Mal – Emilia Pérez | El Mal – Emilia Pérez (4) vs. The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (2) | El Mal – Emilia Pérez |
Best Original Score | The Brutalist | The Brutalist (6) | The Brutalist |
Best Documentary Feature | No Other Land | No Other Land (3) vs. Porcelain War (3) | Tie – No Other Land & Porcelain War |
Best Costume Design | Wicked | Wicked (6) | Wicked |
Best Make-up and Hairstyling | The Substance | The Substance (5) vs. Wicked (1) | The Substance |
Best Production Design | Wicked | Wicked (6) | Wicked |
Best Sound | Dune: Part Two | Wicked (2) vs. A Complete Unkown (1) vs Dune: Part Two (3) | Dune: Part Two |
Best Film Editing | Anora | Conclave (5) vs. Anora (1) | Conclave |
Best Cinematography | The Brutalist | The Brutalist (6) | The Brutalist |
Best Visual Effects | Dune: Part Two | Dune: Part Two (6) | Dune: Part Two |
Best Live Action Short | I’m Not a Robot | Anuja (2) vs. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (3) | The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent |
Best Animated Short | In the Shadow of the Cypress | Wander to Wonder (1) vs. Yuck! (1) vs. Magic Candies (1) vs. Beautiful Men (2) | Beautiful Men |
Best Documentary Short | The Only Girl in the Orchestra | I Am Ready, Warden (4) vs. Incident (1) | I Am Ready, Warden |
Resources used: Rolling Stone, IndieWire, Vanity Fair, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Gold Derby, IMDB, Entertainment Weekly, Los Angeles Times, The Independent, and FanDuel.
Interestingly, the critics made the exact same mistakes in the six same categories. However, similar to some of the users on Polymarket and Kalshi, many of the categories were not unanimous, and there was discourse among many of them.
One weakness for critics’ predictions is the lack of clarity on how confident of a prediction it is. Often, all we receive is their top choice, but it’s unclear if they think it’s a for-sure win or an unclear one.
For example, for Best Documentary Short, the five critics either chose I Am Ready, Warden or Incident. The Only Girl in the Orchestra did not appear, but that doesn’t mean that she was a complete surprise; perhaps, she was their second choice. This is an advantage of prediction markets where the chances for each option are clear.
While the Oscars largely went as expected, a few surprises kept things interesting — especially for those betting on the results. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket showed impressive accuracy, though unexpected wins in key categories proved that nothing is ever certain.
