What to know:
- Despite a late surge from Mikey Madison, Demi Moore’s SAG win strengthens her position as the Oscar favorite for Best Actress.
- After the ceremony, Moore and Timothee Chalamet saw their Oscar odds rise, while Adrien Brody and Mikey Madison’s chances declined.
- Conclave’s unexpected SAG win shakes up the race, making it a stronger challenger to Anora in the Best Picture category.
The 31st Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards aired on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025. After previously hosting in 2018, Kristen Bell returned to host this year.
The SAG Awards are hosted by the SAG-AFTRA union and are typically held earlier in the year but were delayed due to the Los Angeles Wildfires. It is the last major precursor award show before the Oscars.
Many experts, Oscar bettors, and critics look to the SAG Awards as the last indication of what will transpire at the Oscars. Remember, when you bet on the Oscars, take a close look at all the precursor winners, including the SAG Award winners.
Top prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have millions of dollars in the top categories. You can win big with the right information. Here are three big takeaways from the SAG Awards and their impact on the Oscars.
Demi Moore wins Best Actress at the SAG Awards
Demi Moore won the SAG Award for Best Actress in a toss-up between her and Mikey Madison. While Moore won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award, Madison won the BAFTA and the Spirit Award.
Before the last couple of weeks, Moore was the clear winner but the BAFTAs and Spirit Awards started to make analysts believe the voters have turned to Madison’s favor. If Madison won, the Oscar would have more likely gone to her, however, Moore’s win is possibly the final push she needed.
After the SAG Awards, Madison’s chances fell from 52% to 31%, and Moore’s rose from 40% to 65%. Although, we can’t forget I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres who also won a Best Actress Award at the Golden Globes for a Drama.
Moore is the clear frontrunner in the category but you can’t count Madison or Torres out for a surprise win.
Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor at the SAG Awards
The biggest surprise of the night was probably Timothee Chalamet’s SAG win for Best Actor for his role in the Billy Joel biopic, A Complete Unkown. Thus far, The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody was the frontrunner.
Brody won Best Actor at every single one of the precursor awards – the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and the Critics’ Choice Awards. For many, he was expected to win the SAG award as well before winning the Oscar this Sunday.
While Brody is still the frontrunner, it is difficult to predict how the Academy will vote. A Complete Unkown is more of a blockbuster while The Brutalist is a three-and-a-half-hour piece of art. The Academy continues to become more and more international which may favor The Brutalist as well.
After the SAG Awards, Brody went from 73% to 67% and Chalamet went from 19% to 31%. Brody is still more likely to win but if you want to take your chances, you can bet on Chalamet for your Oscar Best Actor predictions.
Conclave wins Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards
Rather than Best Picture, the SAG Awards have the Best Ensemble Award, and Conclave took this prize. This has completely upturned the category for many bettors.
Anora has won the top prizes at the DGA, WGA, PGA, Critics’ Choice, and Spirit Awards. But it is not the film that was expected to win at the SAG Awards.
This awards show has been known to choose more “popular/blockbuster” movies as the winner, rather than the more niche films that win the other main award shows. In the past, films like America Hustle and Inglourious Basterds have won. Many expected Wicked to win this category.
Conclave won the BAFTA for Best Film but many believed that was because the film was British and had an advantage. But the SAG Awards prove that perhaps there is more love for the film than previously expected.
After the award ceremony, Conclave’s chances quadrupled from 6% to 24% and Anora’s chances dipped from 75% to 64%. Conclave covers a less polarizing topic which may sway the votes in their direction.
Whether bettors like it or not, the SAG Awards have made it clear — Best Picture is still an open race.
