What to know:
- The Grammys are generating massive interest in prediction markets, with over $2 million in total trading volume on Kalshi.
- Billy Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft is the favorite for Album of the Year, but Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department leads Billboard’s fan polls.
- While Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan are the clear frontrunners, the Recording Academy’s voting patterns could lead to a statement win for Roan.
After months of speculation and multiple tight races, the 67th Grammy Awards are being held on Feb. 2, 2025. Trevor Noah has hosted the Grammys since 2021, and he will be returning this year too.
This is the biggest night in music but there may be a different kind of tone at this year’s awards ceremony. After the devastating LA fires, “The Recording Academy and MusiCares have pledged $1 million to aid music professionals and have launched the Los Angeles Fire Relief Effort.”
Since the nominations were announced, the prediction market Kalshi has had users betting on who is going to win many of the Grammy categories. There is over $3 million in trading volume across Grammys betting markets.
Most of the attention is being given to the Big 4 categories – Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist. Let’s take a closer look at each.
Album of the Year
The Album of the Year market has over $800,000 trading volume and Billie Eillish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft is currently at the top as the favorite.
Album | # of Spotify Streams |
Hit Me Hard And Soft | 5,559,011,723 |
Short n’ Sweet | 5,452,879,883 |
The Tortured Poets Department | 4,987,464,576 |
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess | 2,751,184,579 |
Cowboy Carter | 1,664,733,915 |
BRAT | 1,498,848,898 |
Djesse Vol. 4 | 92,852,775 |
New Blue Sun | 37,653,607 |
Eillish’s album has the most Spotify streams, but Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet is not far behind. However, Carpenter’s album is not considered to be one of the top contenders.
If you take a look at Billboard’s poll for who is going to win, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department is first with 42.09%. Eilish and Beyoncé are far behind at 15.47% and 13.48%, respectively.
It isn’t too surprising that many want Swift to win. Swift won last year for Midnights and it would be an impressive achievement if she could get the award for the second year in a row. She also has the most Album of the Year wins in history, with four.
However, knowing she already beat this record last year and won the award it is unlikely the Recording Academy will give her the award again this time. Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Eilish’s album are likely to be the two albums going head-to-head.
Beyoncé has never won the category, and Eilish won it back in 2020. Eilish is likely to win but Charli XCX’s Brat could be a dark horse winner given her music dominated the summer with the huge internet trend – Brat Summer.
Unfortunately, the winner has been random in previous years with underdogs grabbing the awards from veterans and pop stars. In this case, the safest bet is Eilish but Beyoncé and Charli XCX are worth considering betting on.
- PICK: Hit Me Hard and Soft
Record of the Year
The Record of the Year market has over $350,000 trading volume. While most experts want Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us to win, most don’t expect him to be able to beat out favorites like Carpenter’s Espresso.
Espresso, Birds of a Feather, or Texas Hold ‘Em can all potentially take the award, however, will the Recording Academy be able to resist the supposed last Beatles song? The nostalgia and love for the Beatles may just bring them this award on their “final” song.
But if we look at previous winners from the last decade and a half, typically the winner is usually some kind of megahit. If this were the case then the Beatles song is unlikely to win.
On Billboard’s poll, Lamar’s Not Like Us is first at 24% and Carpenter’s Espresso is second at 20%.
This is another example of how well-liked Lamar’s song is, but the controversial song may be too “problematic” for the Recording Academy voters.
The only thing that may put Not Like Us on top is the multiple pop hits competing. It may split the vote and help Lamar get the advantage. But if that doesn’t happen, the most likely choice would be Espresso.
- PICK: Espresso
Song of the Year
The Song of the Year market has over $900,000 trading volume. This category has more than two nominees in an extremely tight race for the trophy. For Lamar’s Not Like Us, he is the only songwriter on the impressively written diss track. This may impress voters, but again, a few of the problematic lyrics referring to pedophilia may not play to his advantage.
Then we have Eilish’s Birds of a Feather and Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ Die with a Smile. The latter is currently at the top of the Hot 100 for the fourth consecutive week and has over 1.5 billion Spotify listens despite being the newest song among the nominees.
Die with a Smile also has a more “classic” feel to the song as opposed to Not Like Us and Birds of a Feather. Moreover, both Eilish (and her brother Finneas) and Mars are Grammy darlings. Eilish won Song of the Year last year for What Was I Made For.
However, since she won last year, this may lessen her chances of the voters wanting her to win twice in a row.
Mars and Eilish have each won Song of the Year twice already, setting up the opportunity to become the category’s first three-time winner.
This will be an extremely tight race between these three songs and it’s unclear who reigns supreme.
- PICK: Die With A Smile
Best New Artist
The Best New Artist market has over $500,000 trading volume.
You don’t need to be plugged into new music to know who the two favorites for Best New Artist are. Carpenter and Roan have skyrocketed to success in 2024 while releasing a bevy of hits.
Here, the winner likely depends on what kind of statement the Recording Academy voters want to make. Carpenter is the more mainstream and obvious choice, while Roan’s queer anthems may be a message voters push amidst the current political climate.
In contrast to Carpenter, Roan is less of a traditional pop star and her uniqueness may buy more votes for her.
Carpenter and Roan have broken countless records in 2024 and both are without a doubt deserving of the award. This is, however, another category where the votes may be split because of two huge pop stars. The two dark horses that could potentially win are Raye and Doechi, but they are both long shots for good reason.
- PICK: Sabrina Carpenter