The All-In podcast — starring venture capitalists Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg — kicked off 2025 with a bold experiment: turning their hot takes into real-money betting markets.
Partnering with Polymarket, the crew launched a series of “All-In” prediction markets based on the show’s most debated forecasts.
“We’ve obviously talked to Shayne for some time,” Friedberg said during their episode 2025 Predictions. “We’re really excited about it because it will allow us to track how we’re doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create markets.”
To date, “The Besties” (as they are known by fans) have inspired seven markets on the decentralized platform — with one already resolved. The topics span political predictions and economic forecasts.
All-In Podcast Predictions
Below is a breakdown of each market, including what side our favorite podcasters are on, and where things stand now. And of course, check out the episode where it all begins.
Will the Magnificent 7 shrink below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?
“I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag 7 will be in the trillions of dollars. And the reason is not necessarily because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies. But I am a little bit worried … about the general concentration of the top 7, 8, 9, 10 companies in the indices. I think it’s approaching 40%. And I think that when you look at these historic concentrations, they’ve generally foreshadowed a big drawdown. And unfortunately, I don’t see how you can inoculate yourself from that risk. It could even be 10%, but 10% will be a couple trillion bucks.” – Chamath Palihapitiya
Market status: Resolved ‘YES’.
What’s happened: The market played out and resolved largely as Chamath anticipated. Though the forecast hovered between 35% and 50% on Polymarket through January and February, the Magnificent 7 did in fact experience a significant drawdown by the end of March that resulted in the market resolving as ‘Yes.’
Will U.S. National Debt Surpass $38 Trillion in 2025?
“I remain steadfast in my commitment to there being only one major issue facing this country, and that is the federal debt and the deficit.” – David Friedberg
Market status: Active; trending ‘No’.
What’s happened: The national debt is nearing $37 trillion as of May 2025, growing at an average rate of $4.54 billion per day. That doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon, as Congress is set to pass a massive spending bill backed by President Trump. Likewise, Polymarket forecasts an 81% chance that the debt will exceed $38 trillion by the year’s end.
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
“I’m going to put up a prediction market, which is based upon immigration and the promise that Trump made to have 50 million people be deported from the country. I think in the first year, I’m going to set the over and under at 5% of that stated number, which is 750,000. So after one year in office, will Trump have deported 750,000 less or more?” – Jason Calacanis
Market status: Active; trending ‘No’.
What’s happened: Turning arguably the largest issue of the 2024 presidential election into a market, the forecast reached as high as 50% two days before Trump returned to the Oval Office, then hung out in the low 30s before reality set in. Now the market reflects growing skepticism that the Trump administration will reach this number of deportations in its first year, just as several independent analyses, alongside government data, have indicated.
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2025?
“I will predict that within the next few months after this gets announced, you are going to hear about founders taking $5M of secondary in a round, to make sure that if they are non-Americans, (they) get their visas. And Donald Trump said that you would not have to pay any tax on foreign assets. If I had to do it again, and this was available to me, I would have spent $5M bucks.” – Chamath Palihapitiya
Market status: Active; trending below 100.
What’s happened: Shortly after President Trump proposed the idea of a $5 million “Gold Card” that would function as a visa and pathway to U.S. residency for foreigners, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed they sold as many as 1,000 Gold Cards in just one day. In fact, while joining the All-In podcast as a guest, Lutnick said “The president thinks we can sell a million.” However, the Gold Card buzz has certainly simmered, as traders have become increasingly skeptical of the proposal, projecting that sales will be much lower than the administration’s initial off-the-cuff predictions.
Will tariffs generate more than $250 billion in 2025?
“It’s a huge number. Even with the new 10% baseline tariff, you’re going to see a lot of importers shifting supply chains, and overall trade volume will drop. The models I’ve seen put it closer to $150 or $175 billion, maybe $200 billion if you’re optimistic. But $250 [billion]? That’s a stretch unless they double down and keep the rates up all year.” – David Friedberg
“The White House is projecting some crazy numbers—Navarro was on TV saying $600 billion, but that’s just not how it works. Every time tariffs go up, imports go down, and the actual revenue is always less than the headline math.” – Chamath Palihapitiya
“So we’re all basically saying ‘no’ on the $250 billion number. The market’s probably overestimating how much you can squeeze out of tariffs before the economy and trade flows adjust.” – David Sacks
Market status: Active; trending under $250 billion.
What’s happened: On the pod, there was unanimous consensus that Trump’s tariffs would not generate $250 billion in revenue this year, and the market has largely been in agreement, giving this outcome no more than a 20% chance of occurring since April 20 — a month in which tariff revenue was merely $15.6 billion. Current numbers suggests that customs duties will be only a minor contributor to overall revenue for the federal government.
Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?
two new markets on @polymarket:
— karen bass out as mayor of la in 2025?
— gavin newsom out as california governor in 2025?
wdyt? 👇 pic.twitter.com/jmshMZ8PDJ
— The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) January 17, 2025
Market status: Active; trending no.
What’s happened: The price of Newsom’s resignation reached what is, in hindsight, a humorously high 23% in January, as traders speculated nearly a 1-in-4 chance that scandal, political pressure, California’s budget woes, or all the above would push Newsom out by the end of the year. Newsom has stirred the pot with the launch of his podcast, which has featured conversations with prominent conservative figures, and he of course had literal fires to put out—but he is not in the hot seat himself.
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?
Market status: Active; trending no.
What’s happened: Despite a recall effort spurred by RFK Jr.’s former running mate, Karen Bass remains the mayor of Los Angeles and is unlikely to be pushed out this year, according to traders.
