Bonding is a prediction market strategy where traders buy high-probability outcome shares as if they are bonds that mature at full value upon the market resolution — aiming to earn a small, relatively safe return by holding them to expiration. For example, if Kendrick Lamar’s Luther is 99¢ to be the top Spotify song tomorrow — a position that it held for 14 consecutive days between Feb. 12-25— a bond would be to buy shares at this price for a ~1% return, paying out the next day.
However, bonding carries some risk—unexpected developments and black swan events can cause seemingly certain outcomes to fail, leading to large losses. Using the Spotify market as an example, an unexpected song may come out that surges to the top out of nowhere (tip: new songs usually come out on Thursdays, and Spotify charts are more volatile throughout the weekend.)
There are safer bonding opportunities, such as buying 99¢ shares of an event in which the outcome is already determined but is technically pending on a prediction market platform. In many cases, there are moderate delays between when an outcome actually happens in real time and when the market resolves. When this happens, some traders are looking to sell their shares at a discount, usually 99¢, so that they can quickly have money to continue trading with.
This provides a safe, low-risk opportunity for bonding, which is best for traders with large bankrolls or any trader who is willing to patiently build their bankroll.
Rebonding and compounding
Market timing involves how quickly you redeploy your capital after an event resolves. Successful bonders often compound their winnings by immediately finding another suitable market to bond. For example, if a market resolved in your favor this morning, by afternoon you might roll those funds into another event concluding soon. The faster you can turn over your capital into the next trade (without forcing it into a bad trade), the higher your effective return is over time. This is similar to how short-term lenders or bond traders try to keep their money working constantly.
Be careful, however, not to rush into a subpar opportunity just to stay invested – patience is still key.
How bonding works across different prediction market platforms
While bonding is possible across top prediction market sites, Kalshi and Polymarket offer different pricing structures that impact executing this strategy.
Kalshi: Currently, Kalshi uses a cent-by-cent pricing system where contracts trade in $0.01 increments. This structure creates potential inefficiencies—if a contract is mispriced (e.g., 99¢ when it should be 99.6¢), traders can exploit these gaps for small but steady profits. There are also trading fees that users must take into consideration.
Polymarket: A crypto-based decentralized exchange, Polymarket features fractional pricing, meaning prices can adjust in very fine increments (e.g., 52.3%). This allows for more precise pricing but prevents some bonding opportunities. Polymarket doesn’t charge per-trade fees but applies a 1.5% withdrawal fee on USDC when cashing out, which traders should factor into profit calculations.
Strategies for bonding
Bonding strategies focus on securing profits, minimizing risk, and optimizing timing.
- Look for mispricings: Enter when the market undervalues a near-certain outcome (e.g., a 95% probability contract trading at 90¢). Prediction market that use one-cent tickers are more advantageous for bonding than prediction markets that use fractional pricing.
Capitalize on short timeframes: The shorter the holding period, the higher the effective annualized return.
Scale up trades: While individual gains are small, traders can increase position size to compound profits.
- Avoid speculative jumps: Stick to contracts with very strong likelihoods to reduce exposure to last-minute volatility. Remember, you can find outcomes that are almost certain or have, in fact, already happened and lock in a small 1% return.
Monitor market shifts: Exit early if new developments significantly lower the probability of a bonded position resolving in your favor.
Wait for certainty: Contracts nearing resolution with a high probability of success are ideal for bonding.
Reinvest winnings: Rolling over profits into new high-certainty markets accelerates compounding returns.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket bonding comparison
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated (U.S.) | Decentralized, blockchain-based (crypto) |
| Pricing | Fixed cent-based increments ($0.01 ticks) | Fractional pricing (precise % adjustments) |
| Fees | Yes | No per-trade fee, 1.5% withdrawal fee |
| Interest on Funds | Yes | No |
| Liquidity | High in major markets (Kalshi boosts liquidity via instituational ‘market makers’) | High in popular markets, lower in others |
Final thoughts
Bonding is a conservative strategy for earning low-risk, steady returns in prediction markets. By treating highly probable (and sometimes certain) contracts as short-term investments, traders can generate predictable profits and quick returns while mitigating their risk.
Key takeaways:
Start small and get familiar with platform mechanics.
Monitor fee structures, as they impact net returns.
Be patient—wait for near-certain events and capitalize on short time horizons before committing capital.
Stay disciplined—even 95% probability contracts carry risk.
Consistently compounding small, low-risk profits, bonding can be a stable and scalable approach to gradually building a bankroll—turning near-certain outcomes into profitable opportunities.
